You've all heard how fast pickleball is growing. The "numbers" of that growth vary widely and are often either vaguely sourced or what we call "thin air" numbers.
When we read anything that purports to tell the "numbers" behind a trend, the very first thing we want to know is "Where do those numbers come from?" It's not enough to say they came from USAPA or some other recognizable source. How were they counted? How were they calculated? What data lies behind growth projections? Who performed the calculations and/or projections?
We well understand how everyone wants to be on the band wagon of pickleball growth trend. But just how realistic are the numbers of that growth trend. Here's a classic example. A story from Michigan's Petowsky News-Review includes this paragraph:
"The game of pickleball has grown in leaps and bounds since 2010, by some 385 percent in terms of places to play according to the USA Pickleball Association, as there are some 2.5 million estimated number of players. By 2020, that number could easily reach 8 million."
(Scoure:
http://www.petoskeynews.com/news/community/pickleball-continues-to-see-large-growth/article_321b0852-209d-5f8f-b8e0-d0419389e714.html)
OK, we know where to look to verify the 385% growth in "Places to Play" and it sounds understated.
In fact, in March 2010, USAPA listed 777 courts. The number of courts surpassed 5,000 sometime in April 2017. Such numbers would appear to suggest an actual simple growth rate of 643%, not 385%.
We also question the 2.5-million estimate for number of players. How was that number generated? The most specious of the numbers in that paragraph is the 8-million by 2020. Even though the 8-million is nuanced by the words "could easily", it's still an outrageous number.
If there really are 2.5-million players, that means there are a simple mathematical average of 50,000 pickleball players in each of the 50 states. If we assume 8-million in a mere 3 years, that's a gain of 5.5-million players or roughly 100,000 per state in each of the 50 states.
So, for that type of increase to happen, we'd have to have an increase of roughly 33,000 players each year for three years in every state to create another 5.5-million players. Even in states were Pickleball is wildly poplar such as Arizona, we have a hard time visualizing such mind-boggling growth year-over-year. We live in Idaho and we simply can't visualize there being 50,000 players in this state today, let alone gaining another 33,000 each year for three straight years.
Of course, we obviously know that growth wouldn't be homogeneously distributed evenly in each state. The point we're making is that these numbers seem to be bandied about out of thin air and many people we know are accepting them at face value without questioning their origin or pedigree.
We have NO DOUBT that pickleball's popularity is growing by leaps and bounds. But let's all be realistic and do our best to attempt to generate and support real, factual, honest existing numbers and numbers of projected growth. We do no one (especially ourselves) a favor by touting wild-eyed, pie-in-the-sky numbers.
Let us hope that people who cite such numbers will also include the source of those numbers. That way, we "Bean Counters" can put the pencil to paper and "fact check" the numbers.
We have absolutely no idea whether there really are 2.5-million pickleball players. We'd sure love to know the correct and actual number. Maybe it's a number that can never be known. Who knows?
Bottom Line is we get nervous each time we read numbers in a pickleball story. Where do those numbers come from?"
